Plan your launch
Five quick steps, one screen at a time. Then run the simulation.
Step 1 of 5
Your niche
This comes from the Market Dominator — the niche grade and competitor economics auto-fill the simulator for you. No scan loaded? Add one under Advanced, or try a sample.
No niche loaded yet. It arrives automatically when you open this from the Market Dominator. To load one yourself, use Advanced below.
Advanced — load a scan yourself
New here? Try a sample niche
Step 2 of 5
Product economics
What you sell each unit for and what it costs you. These set your margin per sale.
Step 3 of 5
Launch costs & timing
When you go live, how much inventory you bring, and what the launch costs up front.
Auto-applied: 100 days of initial stock + week-1 reorder to lock supply during the 45-day lead time.
Ads budget
Step 4 of 5
What you don't know for sure
Give a worst / likely / best estimate for each. The simulator rolls thousands of launches across these ranges — this is where the uncertainty lives.
| Uncertain variable | Worst | Likely | Best |
|---|---|---|---|
| Organic sales velocity (units/day at steady state) ? | |||
| Ramp days (time to reach steady state) ? | |||
| Advertising Cost of Sale — ad efficiency (%) ? | |||
| Return rate (%) ? | |||
| Review rate (reviews per 100 orders) ? |
Step 5 of 5
Review & run
A quick recap of what you've set. Looks right? Run 10,000 simulated launches.
Advanced settings (optional)
Newer Amazon fees
Defaults are reasonable — tune only if you know yours.
Simulation settings
✓ Always free — the simulator is static and makes no API calls, so running it never uses credits. Every calculation happens in your browser.
Upload a Cerebro export in Step 1 for sharper results.
Ready when you are
Work through the steps on the left, then click Run Simulation.
How to improve this launch
The biggest levers, ranked by impact for this plan.
How to read these numbers
10,000 simulated launches of your plan. Each rolls slightly different outcomes from your ranges. Numbers shown are summaries across all runs.
- Typical: half the runs did better, half worse — your honest best guess.
- Worst case: only 1 in 10 runs was worse — plan like it's real.
- Best case: only 1 in 10 runs was better — don't bet the house.
What's baked in: holiday-quarter seasonality (Nov/Dec ×2 demand, +30% Advertising Cost of Sale), correlated luck per run, Amazon's 14-day payout lag, Advertising Cost of Sale decay over 6 months, 2024 Amazon placement + aged-inventory fees.
Your cash journey over 12 months
Net worth across 10,000 simulated launches. Solid line = typical, shaded band = best/worst case range. The marked dot is the lowest cash point — your real budget. Why the U-shape? ▾
Cash drops in 3 steps before launch (deposit, balance, one-time costs), keeps dropping early as ads + week-1 reorder hit faster than sales replenish, then climbs as organic ramp kicks in and Amazon pays out (14-day lag). Sawtooth bumps = reorder cycles arriving. The holiday quarter (Nov-Dec ×2 demand) accelerates the climb. The fan widens after month 3 because that's when uncertain organic velocity dominates over deterministic costs.
Detailed charts velocity · monthly P&L · reviews · break-even · sensitivity
Sales velocity over 12 months
Daily units sold, split into organic and paid ads. Solid stacked areas = typical day. Dashed lines = best/worst case totals across all 10,000 simulated launches.
Monthly profit / loss
Net profit & loss for each calendar month — when do you stop bleeding cash and start banking it? Bars are typical; whiskers show worst/best cases.
Review accumulation over 12 months
Reviews are your moat in private-label. This shows when you typically cross 10, 50, 100, and 500 reviews. Wider spread = more uncertainty.
When did break-even happen?
When each simulated launch hit break-even. Taller bar = more common.
What moves the needle most?
Which inputs swing the outcome most. Research the top one before launching.
Saved scenarios
Tick 2+ to compare side-by-side.
No saved scenarios yet. Run a simulation and click 💾 Save Scenario.